By Oliver Gibson
It seems such a long time since talk of Brexit dominated the political landscape of Britain. After months of round-the-clock coverage of the topics such as the Covid-19 pandemic, you could be forgiven for almost forgetting about Brexit altogether.
While it is obvious that the pandemic wasn’t an evil ploy brought about to make everyone forget about exiting the European Union, it is nevertheless quite interesting to see how quickly such an important topic can be relegated to the back of the public mind.
Despite the fact that Brexit is no longer as heavily debated as it once was, it has not simply ‘disappeared’. In fact, there is much more important work to be done.
What is being done now?
After much delay, the UK finally left the European Union on the 31st of January.
The Government is currently in the business of negotiating trade deals with various countries around the world. The most important of these negotiations are perhaps found with the EU, Japan, America and the other CANZUK countries.
Just yesterday, the Government suggested that a UK-EU trade deal could be possible sometime next month. When negotiated, this deal would be among the most important of the UK’s trade deals and would ideally be a welcome boost to British businesses.
The European Union is in no uncertain terms, a huge market. It possesses the second-largest economy by nominal GDP in the world, behind America. The total GDP of the EU in 2018, with the UK included, was estimated to be $18.8 trillion by Eurostat.
Regaining at least a part of the access that the UK had before Brexit would be desirable. It would not, however, be an outcome that was exclusively desirable to Britain as, before Brexit, the UK possessed the EU’s second-largest GDP and was a highly important export market for various European producers.
Most Western countries will likely be interested in increasing trade with the UK in the event of an escalated ‘trade war’ with China, Russia and Iran.
Even the pandemic has been reason enough for countries to distance themselves from over-reliance on China, as found in Japan’s recent moves to increase production inside of its own borders and to limit outsourcing to China.
What Kind of Impact has Brexit been having?
Leaving the European Union was always going to have some sort of a short-term impact on the British economy, while businesses on both sides of the Channel made any necessary adjustments to the new norm. That had always been a noted outcome by both camps in the referendum.
What no one could have predicted was the size and scope of the Covid-19 pandemic, and the effect this had on international politics and diplomacy.
One interesting development during the pandemic and in recent months was the increase in popularity of the ‘CANZUK’ movement.
CANZUK is the proposal for further integration between Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom.
In recent polling conducted by Redfield and Winton, in an article called ‘The UK Public’s Estimation of Allies and Threats’, those polled in the United Kingdom viewed the other CANZUK countries as being Britain’s closest allies, followed by France, Germany and the United States.
Polling of the readers of the Express found that 94% supported further integration with the other CANZUK countries.
In the news recently, was the call by Australian politicians to include freedom of movement in a trade deal with the UK. This level of integration is popular among all CANZUK countries and in all the constituent countries of the United Kingdom.
What with the possibility of a realisation of a closer union between Russia and Belarus, a union many years in the making, and with the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union, it would no doubt be in Britain’s interests to deepen its relationships with its closest allies.
What’s happening in the next few months?
There has been talk recently that the Government could scrap the negotiated Withdrawal Agreement and start the trade and political negotiations with a clean slate.
Iain Duncan Smith is among the MPs proposing such a move. While much has changed since the deal was negotiated, it would certainly be quite a task to negotiate another.
Still, much of the deal was actually negotiated when the Second May Ministry was in a position of weakness in Parliament, and Brexiteers have argued that her Government’s weak position was exploited by the EU negotiators to Britain’s loss.
The current Government enjoys a much stronger position in Parliament, and this could make for easier negotiations with the EU.
What with the Department for Exiting the European Union having been disbanded in January, however, and with the administrative ramifications of the Covid-19 pandemic, the likelihood of the entire Withdrawal Agreement being scrapped seems thin.
However, this proposal goes to show that there is an appetite in Westminster for tough negotiations with the European Union. If this energy and zeal can be used in the negotiations for a Trade Deal, then good things could be on the horizon for British businesses.